American history and politics are a passion of mine, so I always look forward to their primary season.
A year when the incumbent President is not seeking reelection is always especially interesting because it means both big parties engage fully in the lengthy process of selecting a candidate. 2016 is such a year.
American politics is unique and finding a viable candidate from what we would call the centre left is difficult. The Republicans have been an almost exclusively right wing conservative party for decades. Even those in the establishment who have resisted the insurgency of the so called tea party can be pretty scary.
Democrats too have shifted rightwards. Bill Clinton founded the ‘New Democrats’ before Blair’s New Labour and, inspite of all the talk of change, the Obama Presidency has turned out to be pretty much business as usual in most areas.On human rights and civil liberties in particular the administration varies little from its predecessors. The prison at Guantanamo Bay remains open and the draconian Patriot Act firmly in place.
Smaller challengers to the two party monopoly, like Ralph Nader and Gary Johnson of the Libertarian Party have openly stated that they see no real difference between the Democrats and Republicans as they attempt to forge a viable third party challenge. Arguably their respective Green and Libertarian campaigns have given those movements a higher profile than liberalism.
You have to go back a long way to likes of JFK or FDR to find a President prepared to use the ‘ L’ word to describe his political philosophy.Progessive policies are even more historical starting around the era of Teddy Roosevelt and effectively ending by the middle of the century. I am not including civil rights, which came a bit later, which addressed racial politics rather than social reform. In fact when the likes of Martin Luther King started to address the latter they were firmly blocked by the establishment.
So in all this gloom what is the US General Election next year set to look like?
Can Donald Trump secure the GOP nomination and with it the Presidency?
I doubt it. Nixon was right when he stated you had to tack to the right to win the Republican nomination and then rush back to centre to win the big prize. Trump is clearly doing the former (as are his fellow contenders), but looks incapable of doing the latter.
He and his party face another hurdle in contemporary America, namely an increasingly multi- cultural nation where the core Republican support is shrinking.
So the smart money has to be on Hilary Clinton wrapping up her place at the head of the Democratic ticket and then making her way to the White House.
Whatever happens though, the prospects for liberalism across the pond are pretty bleak.
* David Warren is a lifetime political activist for progressive causes and a liberal.